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<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black">So many important public policy decisions have significant myriad long-term effects on life on this planet. This is
particularly true of macro economic, health, and environmental decisions such as the current efforts by the US federal government involving fiscal, health, and environmental matters. Most all of these decisions, as well as many significant ones made by organization
managers, are based on models grounded in various theories, assumptions, and estimates. Most of these models are operationalized through some form of computerization and then important decisions are made. Once the computers run, most decision makers, and
certainly the public at large, take the models to be reality. Those of us trained in research may realize that there are merely theory-based simulations, but I do not recall ever hearing a probability estimate with projection based on such a simulation involving
a government budget or environmental policy, and pretty rarely in any other context except academic research settings. So, I’m curious to know, is anyone teaching awareness of these critical, and often misused, roles of computers in a computer- or MIS-literacy
survey course, or in a course for our graduate or undergraduate majors, or in research courses for our PhD students. And if so, would you please share such materials with me and/or the list? I know statistics are taught and that simulation courses exist,
but it’s the combination and its implications in important decision making that I am trying to better incorporate into my own teaching.
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black">What prompted this question is the example that follows regarding the use of such computerized models in an important
public policy matter. Recent research (<a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/3/8/1603/pdf">http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/3/8/1603/pdf</a>) suggests the theories behind the simulations are erroneous. Nothing new there in terms of how science progresses;
but this particular area of public policy has already involved many hundreds of billions of dollars in impacts on economic and environmental public policies across the globe. Indigenous peoples have been displaced, billions of dollars in taxes raised, industries
impacted, businesses shuttered, jobs lost but some others created, prices increased, and billions in tax dollars spent subsidizing solutions to problems that in fact may not even exist and often create real problems. So the question that crossed my mind was,
what might I teach (or perhaps write) that may help prevent scientists, computer professionals, and decisions makers from making such blunders, and the public at large from accepting them so readily, and hence my question to the list.
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black">But please do not take this posting as an opportunity to debate climate theory or the particulars of public policy on
this list. I assume everyone who reads this note wants to be a good steward of the environment in the very best way they can. These are pedagogical questions I am asking, not a public policy or climate theory ones.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black">Hope all is good with you all this summer!<br>
<br>
Best wishes,<br>
Leon<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><font size="2" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black;font-weight:bold">“The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present.... As our case is new, so we
must think anew, and act anew.” -- Abraham Lincoln, message to Congress, Dec. 1, 1862, just before issuing the Emancipation Proclamation.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="1" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="1" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black"><br>
</span></font><font size="1" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black">----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br>
</span></font><font size="1" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black">Leon A. Kappelman, Ph.D.
<br>
Professor of Information Systems <br>
Director Emeritus, Information Systems Research Center<br>
Fellow, Texas Center for Digital Knowledge<br>
College of Business, University of North Texas<br>
Voice: 940-565-4698 Fax: 940-565-4935 Email: </span></font><font color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black"><a href="mailto:kapp@unt.edu"><font size="1"><span style="font-size:8.0pt">kapp@unt.edu</span></font></a></span></font><font size="1" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black"><br>
Website: </span></font><font color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black"><a href="http://courses.unt.edu/kappelman/"><font size="1"><span style="font-size:8.0pt">http://courses.unt.edu/kappelman/</span></font></a></span></font><font size="1" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black"><br>
Founding Chair, Society for Information Management's Enterprise Architecture Working Group<br>
</span></font><font size="1" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black">----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></font><font size="1" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black"><br>
</span></font><font size="1" color="#1c7c00" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:#1C7C00">Please consider the environment before printing this e-mail</span></font><font size="1" color="#006666" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:#006666"> </span></font><font color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="2" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";font-weight:bold">Subject:</span></font></b><font size="2" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"">
New NASA data challenges global warming models <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt">Like the 5-day weather forecast, the 100-year ones are also prone to error. In fact, more so given their added complexity and the duration of the simulation.
From the report below: "'There is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans.' Not only does the atmosphere release more energy than previously thought, it starts releasing it earlier in a warming cycle. The
models forecast that the climate should continue to absorb solar energy.... Instead, the satellite data shows the climate system starting to shed energy more than three months before the typical warming event reaches its peak.”<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt">From
<a href="http://www.kurzweilai.net/new-nasa-data-challenges-global-warming-alarmism" target="_blank">
http://www.kurzweilai.net/new-nasa-data-challenges-global-warming-alarmism</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt">New NASA data challenges global warming alarmism<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt">July 29, 2011
<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal">NASA satellite data show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted,
according to a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal <em><i><u><font color="blue" face="Times New Roman"><span style="color:blue">Remote Sensing. [</span></font></u></i></em></span></font></b><font size="3" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black"><a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/3/8/1603/pdf">http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/3/8/1603/pdf</a></span></font><em><i><u><font size="3" color="blue" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:blue;font-weight:normal">]</span></font></u></i></em><font size="3"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal"><o:p></o:p></span></font></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal">Data from NASA’s Terra satellite shows that when the climate warms, Earth’s atmosphere is apparently more efficient at releasing energy to
space than models used to forecast climate change have been programmed to “believe.”<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal">The result is climate forecasts that are warming substantially faster than the atmosphere,
<a href="http://www.uah.edu/news/newspages/campusnews.php?id=564" target="_blank">
says Dr. Roy Spencer</a>, a principal research scientist in the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal">In research published in the journal
<em><i><font face="Times New Roman">Remote Sensing</font></i></em>, Spencer and UAHuntsville’s Dr. Danny Braswell compared what a half dozen climate models say the atmosphere should do to satellite data showing what the atmosphere actually did during the 18
months before and after warming events between 2000 and 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal">“The satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space during and after warming than the climate models show,” Spencer
said. “There is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans.”<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal">Not only does the atmosphere release more energy than previously thought, it starts releasing it earlier in a warming cycle. The models forecast
that the climate should continue to absorb solar energy until a warming event peaks.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><strong><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal">Energy lost, not gained: satellite data</span></font></b></strong><font size="3"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal"><o:p></o:p></span></font></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal">Instead, the satellite data shows the climate system starting to shed energy more than three months before the typical warming event reaches
its peak.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal">“At the peak, satellites show energy being lost while climate models show energy still being gained,” Spencer said.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal">Applied to long-term climate change, the research might indicate that the climate is less sensitive to warming due to increased carbon dioxide
concentrations in the atmosphere than climate modelers have theorized. A major underpinning of global warming theory is that the slight warming caused by enhanced greenhouse gases should change cloud cover in ways that cause additional warming, which would
be a positive feedback cycle.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal">Instead, the natural ebb and flow of clouds, solar radiation, heat rising from the oceans and a myriad of other factors added to the different
time lags in which they impact the atmosphere might make it impossible to isolate or accurately identify which piece of Earth’s changing climate is feedback from manmade greenhouse gases.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal">“There are simply too many variables to reliably gauge the right number for that,” Spencer said. “The main finding from this research is
that there is no solution to the problem of measuring atmospheric feedback, due mostly to our inability to distinguish between radiative forcing and radiative feedback in our observations.”<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal">For this experiment, the UAHuntsville team used surface temperature data gathered by the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Great Britain. The
radiant energy data was collected by the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments aboard NASA’s Terra satellite.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<h2 style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:normal">The six climate models were chosen from those used by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The UAHuntsville team used the
three models programmed using the greatest sensitivity to radiative forcing and the three that programmed in the least sensitivity.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="3" color="black" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:black">If you’d like to learn more about such climate models, there is a well-documented one in the
report by MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change that is linked from this commentary
<a href="https://courses.unt.edu/kappelman/blog/content/weak-underbelly-climate-models-are-you-feeling-lucky-punk">
https://courses.unt.edu/kappelman/blog/content/weak-underbelly-climate-models-are-you-feeling-lucky-punk</a>.
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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